FICC

Oil prices are caught in a tug-of-war. Concerns about the demand outlook are acting as a price ceiling while the risk of a geopolitically induced supply shock is providing a floor. Prices are likely to remain rangebound over the near term. Yet the path of least resistance over a 6-to-12-month horizon is to the downside.

What do the mixed signals sent by the UK economy mean for the Bank of England, and what are the implications for Gilts and the British pound?

Special Report

In this report, we gauge the reasons behind the persistently weak Norwegian krone, despite what appears to be benign domestic economic conditions.

In this monthly review, we give our take on where bond yields and the dollar are headed. This is within the lens of revisiting our fundamental indicators.

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for August 2024.

This morning’s employment report sent a recessionary warning sign. We examine the implications for monetary policy and US bond yields.

We assess the investment implications of the BoJ and Fed meetings, and give our take on the next policy moves. We also assess the impact on asset markets.

The Fed kept rates steady today, but teed up an initial rate cut in September while putting more emphasis on the employment side of its dual mandate.

This report takes a look at bond and FX market technical indicators and calibrates the decision to increase portfolio duration and get long the US dollar.

The absence of a catalyst that will boost Chinese steel demand dims the odds that iron ore and steel prices will recover over the coming six-to-nine months. Instead, we expect ferrous metals to face further downside into year-end.