Latest from BCA Research

In trying to dispel client concerns that the US would get involved in another “forever war” akin to Iraq, we posited in a recent missive that President Trump’s designs on Venezuela were similar to the 1983 invasion of Grenada. A way to flex American muscle while, at the same time, reducing US global commitments.

MacroQuant has downgraded equities to underweight, favors a below-benchmark duration stance in fixed-income portfolios, remains bearish on the US dollar, and is still bullish on gold.

Late December is time for relaxation and reflection. We sincerely hope that all our clients and friends have had the time to defragment their brains over the past two weeks. The geomacro Vol is unlikely to let up in 2026. We will all need stamina and clarity for what lies ahead.

For investors, there are two ways to think of President Trump’s bellicose rhetoric and military positioning vis-à-vis Venezuela

The forces that have recently propelled aluminum prices will remain supportive over the near term. However, beyond the coming months, aluminum prices will retreat as bearish cyclical pressures overwhelm over the course of 2026.

2026 is shaping up to be a fertile backdrop for new Private Equity commitments, and our views are turning increasingly constructive. However, three risks remain on our radar: The overhang, Middle East capital, and Evergreen funds.

Bank Credit Analyst

In Section I, Doug underscores that the US labor market remains weak, crimping the outlook for disposable income growth. It is too soon to decisively bet against the bull market, but downside risks remain quite elevated. In Section II, Jonathan updates the BCA Artificial Intelligence Productivity Checklist and concludes that the evidence of an AI-driven productivity boom is not convincing.

Bank Credit Analyst

In Section II, Jonathan updates the BCA Artificial Intelligence Productivity Checklist and concludes that the evidence of an AI-driven productivity boom is not convincing.

Special Report

Our outlook for Fed policy in 2026.

This week, our screeners explore German stocks to underweight or short, sectors that would benefit the most from a reversal of the K-Shaped economy, as well as gold miners equities.