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Emerging Markets

Essentials
China: Structural Uptrend In New Infrastructure Investment
BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service expects the country’s green and tech infrastructure investment to continue to boom in 2023 and beyond. China’s tech infrastructure investment skyrocketed by nearly 40% year-on-year in the past six months, much…
3 years ago
GeoMacro
2023 Key Views: Gridlock At Home, Crisis Abroad
Special Report

Investors should maintain a conservative and defensive strategy until recession risks are clearly reduced.

Yushu Ma, Matt Gertken, Jesse Kuri, Guy Russell
3 years ago
CoreMacro
China’s Infrastructure Investment: A Growth Deceleration Ahead
Special Report

China’s infrastructure investment growth rate will likely slow from its current nominal 14% to 4-6% in 2023H1, on a year-over-year basis. Funding constraints and a shrinking pool of good projects will cap the upside in China’s overall infrastructure fixed-asset investment (FAI) in the next six months.

3 years ago
China
Essentials
Fade The Rally In Asian Equities and Currencies
Chinese investable stocks and the Asian currencies index posted the largest positive post-GFC abnormal returns among major financial market assets in November. Investor optimism about a potential relaxation of pandemic measures in China, as well as hopes for…
3 years ago
FICC
Sticking The Soft(ish) Landing

This week we present our Portfolio Allocation Summary for December 2022.

Ryan Swift, Robert Timper
3 years ago
Essentials
Does The RMB Rally Have Legs?
The Chinese Renminbi recently made a sharp U-turn. Year-to-date weakness has given way to a 4.9% appreciation versus the USD since the end of October. This rally occurred against the backdrop of broad-based US dollar depreciation. Global investors cheered the…
3 years ago
Essentials
Political Uncertainty Hits The Rand
Over the past week, the South African rand was a key underperformer in the currency space. Despite broad-based dollar weakness, USD/ZAR ended the weak 2.4% higher. Heightened domestic political uncertainty triggered the South African currency’s depreciation.…
3 years ago
Essentials
Fade The Rally In EM Equities and Bonds
Emerging Markets equities and bonds have staged an impressive rally. The MSCI Emerging Markets index and the JPM GBI EM Global Diversified Composite Total Return index advanced by 15% and 7%, respectively, in November in US dollar terms. This performance…
3 years ago
Essentials
Chinese Equities: Short Banks / Long Consumer Staples And Autos
BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service recommends a new relative equity trade: short Chinese bank stocks / long Chinese consumer staples and auto stocks. Authorities are once again using banks to finance stimulus – in this case, to fund property…
3 years ago
CoreMacro
China's Reopening: Beware Of Zigzags And Roundabouts

Is China completely abandoning its dynamic zero-COVID policy? When will the economy start recovering? What are the implications for Chinese stocks and China-related assets?
Have authorities provided enough financing to property developers? Will developers be able to repay these loans and, if not, who would bear the cost of potential defaults?
What should be the strategy for Chinese onshore rates and the RMB?

Arthur Budaghyan
3 years ago
China

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