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Labor Market

Essentials
A Soft Landing For The Labor Market Is Unlikely
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, there is only a narrow path to a soft landing. Our colleagues estimate a mere 20% chance that the US will avoid a recession before the end of 2025. The US unemployment rate is a highly…
2 years ago
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CoreMacro
What To Expect When You’re Expecting A Recession

The signs of an approaching recession are starting to emerge. We will turn tactically defensive once they all fall into place.

Doug Peta
2 years ago
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CoreMacro
Trickle-Up Economics And Bubbles

Looking at economic activity, global monetary policy seems restrictive, however, the behavior of financial markets tells a different story. What gives?

Mathieu Savary
2 years ago
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CoreMacro
The Narrow Path To A Soft Landing

There is a path to a soft landing, but it is a narrow one. We estimate that there is only a 20% chance that the US will avoid a recession before the end of 2025. We are currently neutral on global equities, but expect to downgrade stocks to underweight during the summer.

Peter Berezin
2 years ago
Essentials
RBNZ: The Next Dove?
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept interest rates on hold at this week’s monetary policy meeting, in line with expectations. However, there were three new notes from its monetary policy statement that will likely affect how it approaches future…
2 years ago
Essentials
Sticky Wages Won't Derail June ECB Cut
Negotiated wages rose 4.7% y/y in Q1, from 4.5% y/y in Q4 in the Eurozone. Meanwhile, preliminary estimates for the Eurozone Composite PMI surprised to the upside in May. Although wage growth is the main driver of services inflation and Euro Area economic…
2 years ago
Essentials
DM Manufacturing Activity Improves In May
Preliminary estimates suggest that manufacturing activity generally improved across DM economies in May. Manufacturing PMIs for the US, the Eurozone, Japan and the UK all improved from their April levels. Notably, manufacturing activity started growing again…
2 years ago
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FICC
New Zealand: The Rising Case For A Rate Cut

In this Insight, we revisit our "higher for longer" theme for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, in light of the latest central bank meeting. In conclusion, we are inching towards a more dovish RBNZ ahead. Ergo, we recommend some fixed income and currency trades.

Chester Ntonifor
2 years ago
Essentials
Diverging Coincident And Leading Indicators Reflect Delayed Impact From Tight Policy
The Conference Board US Leading Economic Index (LEI) declined by a larger-than-expected 0.6% m/m in April from 0.3% m/m. Deteriorating consumer sentiment and manufacturing new orders led the overall decline. Contractions in the year-on-year changes in this…
2 years ago
Essentials
Junk Bonds Are Ignoring The Rise In Unemployment
Credit spreads continue to price in a Goldilocks scenario. US investment grade and high-yield OAS have tightened 41 and 137 bps from their October peaks, resulting in handsome outperformance by both sectors relative to duration-equivalent Treasuries.…
2 years ago

Related Topics

Business Cycles Capex Consumer Corporate Economic Growth Government Inflation/Deflation Manufacturing Productivity Recession-Hard/Soft Landing See more Topics