CoreMacro

European equity markets are on a roller-coaster ride. Geopolitical tensions and a deteriorating economic outlook are weighing down on equities. More easing from the ECB now that inflation is back at target will not save the day.

China’s Politburo announcement is likely to lead to a repricing of China’s growth in the near-term. Read how investors can hedge against this potent threat to our defensive investment stance.

The September Euro Area Flash PMI release confirms that the region's economic outlook is deteriorating. Manufacturing activity is now fully contracting, and the new orders-to-inventory ratio is deteriorating anew. Services activity is losing some of its shine, especially in France, now that the Olympics are over.

The Draghi report highlights sensible reforms that would address many of Europe’s productivity shortcomings. Whether European capitals heed Mario Draghi’s advices remains to be seen.

The ECB will cut rates once more this year; however, markets underprice how far it will ease next year.

Crucial leading indicators of the global and European economies continue to deteriorate. How should investors position their European portfolios to benefit from these trends?

Special Report

Turn negative on European credit. At current levels, spreads do not compensate for the risk of a recession materializing later this year or in early 2025.

Our negative stance on European growth and assets is not devoid of risks. To gauge whether these risks warrant upgrading our growth outlook, we monitor Sweden closely. So, what is the current message from this Nordic economy?

What do the mixed signals sent by the UK economy mean for the Bank of England, and what are the implications for Gilts and the British pound?

The unwind of yen carry trades caused violent tremors across the globe. Was this shock a one-off event or the prelude to more troubles?