Essentials

Bank Credit Analyst

Investors are being forced into riskier asset classes by the TINA effect, but the gaping macro disequilibria makes it difficult for investors to see how we move back to equilibrium in a benign way. Monetary policy on its own is limited in its ability to soften the adjustment, but the good news is that the political pendulum is swinging toward fiscal stimulus.

Bank Credit Analyst

The 35-year bond bull market is coming to an end and the downward sloping trend channel for yields is changing to flat. Asset allocators should trim duration and fixed income exposure.

Bank Credit Analyst

The Brexit vote has ended the reflation trade, but does not represent a "Lehman moment" either. Stick close to benchmark in terms of broad asset allocation, and watch European bank CDS for signs that another financial crisis is brewing.

Bank Credit Analyst

This month's Special Report reviews the literature on equity market timing, and identifies the key indicators that historically have had the best track record. We then aggregate the indicators into an overall scorecard that should prove to be valuable for investors in these volatile times.

Bank Credit Analyst

Our sense is that the current reflation trade will extend into the summer, sending stock and commodity prices higher and the U.S. dollar down. Global government bond yields should rise during this phase. Beyond the near term, we expect these reflation trades to go into reverse. Stay defensive.

Bank Credit Analyst

Several tail risks appear less ominous compared to last month. Nonetheless, the earnings outlook has not improved and the FOMC will turn more hawkish ahead of the June meeting. Stay defensively positioned.

Bank Credit Analyst

This month's Special Report reviews the main factors driving the "lower for longer" bond yield view. A key finding is that the demographically-driven portion of the expansion in world capital spending has come to a virtual standstill, representing a major hit to underlying demand growth.

Bank Credit Analyst

The U.S. corporate re-leveraging cycle is far more advanced than is widely believed. Corporate health looks only mildly better excluding the troubled energy and materials sectors. Mushrooming leverage ratios are not restricted to junk issuers either.