FICC

Inflation expectations in the Developed Markets have been adjusting down to the lower trend of actual inflation, although the bulk of this adjustment now appears complete.

The deeply negative momentum in oil prices is fading, setting up the possibility of a counter-trend rebound in global inflation expectations and perhaps even the beaten-up U.S. High-Yield bond market.

Value in the U.S. Treasury market is rapidly deteriorating, and the 10-year Treasury yield is now consistent with our fair value projections. Investors should shift from an above-benchmark to a benchmark duration stance.

Reduce portfolio duration to neutral, while also cutting exposure to European bonds (both in the core and Periphery) and Canadian government bonds.

Special Report

Despite its substantial decline, the 10-year Treasury yield still appears reasonably valued relative to our base case scenario of a flat or slightly weaker U.S. dollar. In this Special Report we outline our Treasury valuation framework, in which the dollar plays a key role.

With global bond yields converging toward the lower levels of the NIRP countries, it still makes sense to favor markets with higher nominal and real yields and steeper curves, like U.S. Treasuries (especially U.S. TIPS) and U.K. Gilts.

Maintain an above-benchmark portfolio duration since, favoring markets with the highest real yields that stand out in a world where 65% of Developed Market government bonds trade with a negative yield.

Spread product performance has been foreshadowing changes in market rate hike expectations since early last year, and the recent bout of weakness means it is probably time for the Fed to temper its hawkishness.

The declining correlation between risk assets and Treasury yields suggests that the market perceives monetary policy to be overly restrictive. Historically, this has led the FOMC to adopt a more dovish policy stance.

With inflation expectations declining alongside asset prices in almost every major economy, central banks can at least not make things worse by being more hawkish than necessary.