FICC

This morning’s employment report sent a recessionary warning sign. We examine the implications for monetary policy and US bond yields.

We assess the investment implications of the BoJ and Fed meetings, and give our take on the next policy moves. We also assess the impact on asset markets.

The Fed kept rates steady today, but teed up an initial rate cut in September while putting more emphasis on the employment side of its dual mandate.

This report takes a look at bond and FX market technical indicators and calibrates the decision to increase portfolio duration and get long the US dollar.

After this morning’s jobless claims number, we have now seen enough deterioration in our preferred labor market indicators to increase portfolio duration from “at benchmark” to “above benchmark”.

We calculate expected returns for several different US fixed income sectors with a focus on how municipal bonds stack up against the investment alternatives.

In this Insight, we look into the recent CPI release in Canada, and the possible implications for fixed-income market trades.

In this report, we present the quarterly review of our Model Bond Portfolio. Rebounding growth and political instability led to slightly negative portfolio performance in Q2/2024. As global growth starts to moderate, we continue to favor government bonds over credit. Maintain a defensive portfolio stance.

In light of last week’s employment report and this morning’s CPI, it’s time for the Federal Reserve to cut rates.

Special Report

We consider the outlook for CPI inflation over the next 12 months. Our baseline forecast calls for core CPI to hit 2.40% during this timeframe and for headline CPI to fall between 1.74% and 2.49%.