Portfolio

Beginning with this Quarterly report, The Global Asset Allocation and Private Markets teams are combining our quarterly outlooks into a single, unified framework, reflecting a more integrated approach to portfolio construction. In this joint outlook we upgrade Private Equity to overweight. Sentiment has soured, LPs are starved of distributions, flows have collapsed, valuations are trending lower, Secondaries are outperforming Primaries, and GP stocks are experiencing their worst underperformance on record. All signs of a durable bottom.

Special Report

AI dominates markets, but concentration is risk. Real Estate is the diversifier. It outperformed during the Dot-Com bust and will do so again if the AI trade unwinds. Even Office, the sector arguably most exposed to AI disruption, will prove more resilient than bears expect.

Software has rattled Public Stocks, BDCs, and Asset Managers. Exposure across Private Markets has raised more questions than answers. We size it up. Private Equity is under pressure, Venture Capital is racing ahead, and Credit is pricing in the risk.

In Private Markets, yesterday’s winners often see outperformance fade. Top-quartile managers often regress toward the median as fund series mature. For investors evaluating the next Real Estate or Private Equity manager: Bias toward underweighting Funds V and beyond.

Special Report

Private Equity fund vehicles may extend beyond 10 years, but the underlying assets that drive performance typically do not. We provide the framework for investors to capitalize on this reality.

Special Report

Europe has been too ambitious with Renewables. Oversupply, volatility, and rising contract risk are compressing revenues and returns. The space is now crowded yet markets have not fully repriced the risk. New opportunities are emerging: Power Storage and Data Centers have upside.

We remain overweight APAC in both Private Equity and Venture Capital, recognizing the region and its opportunities have evolved meaningfully. Buyouts are growing faster than many realize, driven by Japan, while a deeper reset in fundamentals versus global markets supports stronger upside potential.

Investment risk in Private Markets differs from that in Public Markets. It unfolds over time, with today’s issues coming from yesterday’s investments. We explain why, and more importantly, why the next dollar now faces lower risk across both macro and fundamental drivers. Just do not expect a discussion about standard deviations.

Special Report

Private Credit, Software, Iran, Trump – important headlines, but the opportunity lies elsewhere. In this edition of the Public Versus Private series, we do things a little differently. We focus exclusively on US Sunbelt Multifamily, a perennial area of global investor interest. We favor Public REITs over Privates with valuations near a bottom.

Everyone has opinions on Private Credit, but few have the data, and fewer have the objectivity. We give you both. In under 5 minutes, you will understand how we got here and, more importantly, how to allocate from here.