The Global Investment Strategy team downgraded global equities to underweight in late June. The latest reading from our MacroQuant model is consistent with this decision....
We assess the investment implications of the BoJ and Fed meetings, and give our take on the next policy moves. We also assess the impact on asset markets....
The Fed kept rates steady today, but teed up an initial rate cut in September while putting more emphasis on the employment side of its dual mandate....
The Global Investment Strategy team downgraded global equities to underweight in late June. The latest reading from our MacroQuant model is consistent with this decision....
We should fear a recession in the frothy parts of the US stock market much more than a recession in US GDP. And as frothy US tech stocks sell off, an excellent hedge is to go long JPY/GBP or JPY/EUR....
The war in the Middle East is expanding, upgrading our subjective odds of a major oil supply shock to 37% and underscoring our 60% odds of Republican victory in November. Volatility should spike again as investors contemplate the prospect of rising oil prices amid slowing US and global growth. Tacti...
Total consumer credit rose by USD 11.4 billion in May (to USD 5,065 billion outstanding) from a slightly upwardly revised USD 6.5 billion increase in April, surpassing expectations of a smaller increase. Notably, revolving credit (which includes credit cards) accounted for nearly two-thirds of the r...
Republicans are favored but the election is still competitive. Equities, corporate credit, and cyclical sectors will fall until policy uncertainty is reduced....
According to BCA Research’s US Equity Strategy service, the stock market outperformance in 2024 thus far is an unusual pattern in election years. The historical data imply that the market will suffer a spill if investors come to believe the incumbent party will change. The spike in volatility in rec...
