Please note that going forward we will no longer send email alerts when we publish our regular US labor market and inflation chartpacks. These chartpacks will still be published on the website on days of US employment report and CPI releases....
Europe was shunned while AI could do no wrong. That trade is looking tired. Falling energy prices and cracks in the AI boom favor rotating out of US equities and into cheaper European stocks. Favor defensives: Europe can win the relative race even if both markets fall....
On October 13, we asked what would happen “if Gina wins?” Gina Hinojosa, a Democratic state legislator from the traditionally Republican-voting Texas, was at the time given only a 1-in-5 chance of winning the state’s governorship, despite being tied in the polls with the conservative incumbent....
Europe faces deep structural problems. Dismantling large parts of the welfare state might be necessary to rectify these problems, which is unlikely to happen before there is a major crisis. Until then, investors should “sell Europe” on any rallies....
US institutions are prevailing over an unorthodox personality, implying policy adjustment and a decent backdrop for equity markets. But the Iran war is an immediate and acute risk to the global macro and market outlook....
Everyone is talking about the Total Portfolio Approach. Few are explaining how to do it. A new series from BCA’s Portfolio Construction team takes TPA from whiteboard to execution. The first three reports cover running the team, building the portfolio, and how TPA and Evergreen funds are reshaping P...
In a month when Tech dragged the market lower, USHQ’s quality tilt paid off, beating the benchmark by 238bps with gains spread across the portfolio. USHQ SMID lagged in October but remains ahead of its benchmark since June....
October has been a bad month for equities — particularly AI/tech ones — and a great month for oil. We do not think that the AI supercycle is ending, it has more room to go. Token price decline is a sign of a price war between LLMs, not a decline in demand. In fact, that price war is what is driving ...
Commodities have diverged sharply in recent months. We explain why energy prices are likely to stay elevated after the US midterms, why gold’s slide should prove limited, and how we are positioning for the months ahead....
