Gold
Commodities have diverged sharply in recent months. We explain why energy prices are likely to stay elevated after the US midterms, why gold’s slide should prove limited, and how we are positioning for the months ahead.
In this report, we explore opportunities in goldminer equities, AI infrastructure monetization, and Japan's tactical outperformance window.
Gold and goldminers have corrected 25% from January highs. With our commodity team bullish gold, we are getting long GDX. Goldminers offer a gold-linked hedge against macro outcomes that would likely be damaging for equities, while improvements in profitability, capital discipline, and balance-sheet quality make the sector attractive in its own right, and it is largely independent of AI risk.
In this Special Report we argue that the worst of gold's downturn is likely behind us. Real rates and the dollar — which have reasserted themselves as gold's primary drivers — are set to shift from headwinds to tailwinds for the metal.
