Latest from BCA Research

Oil, copper, and gold futures curves have recently experienced abnormal shifts and twists. Brent is no longer fully backwardated, copper curves on the LME and CME have diverged, and gold is in a steep contango. We examine the drivers and implications of these shifts for prices and curve structure across the three commodities.

In this report, we take stock of the Q1 2025 earnings season. Corporate commentary and forward guidance provide valuable insights into the state of the economy, tariff mitigation strategies, and consumer spending.

Peru’s economic resilience will help its markets outperform their EM peers. Domestic macro fundamentals are robust, and strong external accounts will lead to a stable-to-strengthening currency versus the US dollar. Overweight Peruvian equities, local bonds, and sovereign credit relative to their respective EM benchmarks, and go long 10-year domestic bonds (currency unhedged).

Five questions, five answers from the road. We unpack what Europe’s biggest investors are worried about right now, from trade‑war whiplash to bund‑versus‑Treasury positioning; and where the real opportunities still lie.

Special Report

We perform a decomposition of yields moves across six major developed government bond markets to get to the bottom of what’s been driving the global bond selloff of the past eight months.

Special Report

Trump’s signature bill is surprising to the upside with budget deficits, as predicted. Some version is guaranteed to pass – but higher bond yields and inflation will weigh on the economy and stock market.

Right now, the major stock and bond markets are more ‘anti-fragile’ than fragile, and the Joshi rule recession indicators signal that a US recession is not imminent. This justifies a neutral, or default, tactical weighting to both stocks and bonds until a major market does become fragile, or until recession risk elevates. The one major price trend that is fragile is the 65-day selloff in the US dollar, which justifies a tactical overweighting to the dollar.

The RBA just turned dovish, but the macro data do not justify many more cuts. We unpack why Australia’s strong labor market and sticky inflation limit the scope for further easing.

Return expectations have changed for Buyouts, but not equally for Large+ and Middle Market deals. While tariffs are dramatically reducing investor expectations, our return expectations are modestly increasing—with Large+ leading. In Part 2, we will tackle Private Credit.

Risk assets rallied hard following the Great Geneva De-escalation, but we are not enamored of risk assets’ risk-reward profile. Forward-looking survey data remain awful on balance and we continue to recommend a defensive asset allocation profile.