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Australia

Australian yields and the AUD are likely to trade lower next year in response to a more neutral RBA message and slowing growth. The RBA raised the cash rate 25bps to 4.85% on a 6-3 vote, marking the fifth hike of 2026 and the highest policy rate in 18 years.…

MacroQuant recommends a slight underweight to equities and an overweight to bonds and cash. The model is bullish on the US dollar, negative on gold, very negative on copper, and neutral on oil.

Australia's labor market is softening, strengthening the case for Australian government bonds. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.7% in September, while employment growth remains subdued. The number of people unemployed for more than a year has risen to its…
Australia’s September NAB Business Survey signals softening activity that will limit the RBA’s hawkishness. Business conditions held in negative territory at -1, after turning negative last month for the first time since 2020. A modest rebound in profits and…

We review our Model Bond Portfolio performance for Q3 and look ahead as energy prices continue to drive fixed income markets. Balanced labor markets point to a mild tightening cycle, creating opportunities in government bonds and credit, while inflation-linked bonds continue offering protection against persistent energy risks.

MacroQuant recommends an underweight to equities and bonds, counterbalanced by a significant overweight to cash. The model is very bullish on the US dollar, slightly negative on gold and copper, and positive on oil.

Australia's August CPI shows no sign of re-accelerating core inflation, suggesting a less aggressive RBA tightening than currently priced. Headline CPI rose less than expected in August, to 4.0% y/y from 3.5%, lifted by higher fuel prices in the transport…

After two weeks on the road talking to investors across ANZ and India, this report addresses the questions that came up most: from investment grade issuance concerns to the selloff at the long end, and what's really driving JGBs, the yen, and the outlook for Australian and New Zealand rates.

Australia's August NAB Business Survey points to a cooling economy and supports an on-hold RBA. Business conditions turned negative for the first time since 2020, falling to -1 from 4 and well below the long-term average. Profits and sales dropped to their…
Australia’s latest inflation beat will keep RBA tightening risk alive, but the forces shaping inflation over the next year are becoming more disinflationary. Headline CPI eased to 3.5% y/y in July from 3.8%, but exceeded the 3.3% consensus. While trimmed-mean…