Fixed Income

Bet On Higher US Treasury Yields Into Early 2027

US Treasury yields have fallen below our fair value estimate as investors rotated out of AI equities and into fixed income. We lay out why near-term inflation risks argue for a rebound, and the tactical trades we initiate to position for it.

4 days ago

US Gov Sovereigns/Treasurys Inflation

CoreMacro

MacroQuant Model Update: Show Me The Money

MacroQuant recommends a slight underweight to equities and an overweight to bonds and cash. The model is bullish on the US dollar, negative on gold, very negative on copper, and neutral on oil.

6 days ago

BCA Indicators/Model Asset Allocation Financial Markets

Essentials

Bond Yields Now Follow The AI Trade

AI equity performance has replaced oil as the main driver of US Treasury yields, setting up a rotation out of AI stocks into the rest of the market. Our Chart Of The Week comes from Ryan Swift, our Chief US Bonds Strategist. Bond yields now track AI stocks…

1 week ago

Fixed Income Oil AI and Markets

Essentials

Indonesia: A Value Trap

Our EM strategists see Indonesian financial assets as a value trap rather than a buying opportunity. There is room for the ongoing sell-off in Indonesian assets to run further as the country’s macro backdrop deteriorates. President Prabowo’s growth push will…

1 week ago

Indonesia Fiscal Policy Monetary Policy

FICC

The Go-Slow Fed Tightening Cycle

The Fed will hike rates at a pace of 25 bps per quarter until either falling inflation or tighter financial conditions cause it to stop.

1 week ago

US Monetary Policy Gov Sovereigns/Treasurys

Essentials

Canada: Short-Term Pain, Long-Term Gain

Our FICC strategists believe that CAD and Canadian equities are likely to lag in the near term, but both should outperform over a three-to-four-year horizon. Housing will remain a drag next year and labor market weakness will likely hurt consumption. Wealth…

2 weeks ago

Canada Fixed Income Currencies

Essentials

On Whether Bonds Will Hedge Stocks During The Next Recession

An overwhelming share of BCA clients expects US Treasuries to be a good hedge against equities in the next recession. In last week's poll, we asked our clients if they think US Treasuries will be a good hedge against equities in the next recession. 72% expect…

2 weeks ago

Asset Allocation Equities Fixed Income

Essentials

On Yields And Equities

BCA clients expect equities to struggle when US 10-year yields move above 6%. Half of BCA clients expect equities to be negatively impacted only when the nominal 10-year yield goes above 6%; 40% expect yields above 5.5% to affect equities; only 10% consider…

3 weeks ago

Fixed Income Equities

Essentials

Will US Treasurys Hedge You In The Next Recession? Lessons From High-Debt Countries

Our Portfolio Construction strategists argue that the high US debt burden will not prevent Treasurys from hedging the next recession. Some clients have begun to doubt that government bonds can still protect portfolios, with debt at 121% of GDP and net…

3 weeks ago

Fixed Income Gov Sovereigns/Treasurys

EssentialsPortfolioFICC

Will US Treasurys Hedge You In The Next Recession? Lessons From High-Debt Countries

History suggests central bank policy determines how bonds behave in recessions, even for high-debt countries. The Fed should be able to cut into a slowdown, making Treasurys an effective equity hedge… for USD-based investors. Foreign investors will see currency depreciation erase their gains.

3 weeks ago

Fixed Income Gov Sovereigns/Treasurys

Fixed Income

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