Oil markets will not be impacted by Venezuela in the near term, but by shocks from the Middle East. Maduro’s ability to stay in power in the short-term removes an avenue of oil supply relief. The same avenue is cut off if Trump is reelected. Geopolitical shocks in Venezuela could present tactical bu...
In this Special Report, Jonathan LaBerge of The Bank Credit Analyst argues that the Fed should abandon the framework changes that it made in 2020, both to its inflation and employment objectives. If “structural dovishness” is made a permanent feature of Fed policy, investors can expect more frequent...
In Section I, we note that the US labor market is turning, and that the economy is indeed slowing to a recessionary tipping point. Disinflation continues, but not at a pace that would allow the Fed to cut aggressively outside of the context of a recession. We continue to expect that Donald Trump wil...
We are growing positive on Growth assets with recession expectations increasing our optimism on entry points. Equities are led by APAC Private Equity, North America Venture Capital, and Europe Buyouts. Our outlook continues to improve on CRE within the Inflation & Diversification bucket while we are...
After this morning’s jobless claims number, we have now seen enough deterioration in our preferred labor market indicators to increase portfolio duration from “at benchmark” to “above benchmark”....
This report provides our framework for interpreting the messages from last week’s Third Plenum, and the potential implications for the economy and investors....
The S&P 600 and Russell 2000 have outperformed the S&P 500 by close to 10% since July 9. Small caps typically outperform in the early stages of economic expansions when growth is accelerating, demand-driven inflation is rising and lending standards are easing. Why are they rallying now that economic...
“Cash on the sidelines” as a share of the US equity market cap has declined to a record low. This is true for investable funds of both households and investment firms. Hence, there is little firepower left to sustain the equity rally....
We calculate expected returns for several different US fixed income sectors with a focus on how municipal bonds stack up against the investment alternatives....
