CoreMacro
| US
US macro analysis on the Fed, the consumer, and fiscal policy, and the investment calls that follow.
Job creation remains stalled, but consumers are carrying on and S&P 500 earnings have been growing by double digits. Although the repercussions from the war in the Middle East are not yet clear, the US economy was doing just fine before it began.
Oil prices will likely rise in the near term, irrespective of developments in the Strait of Hormuz. Given that global share prices have become correlated with crude prices, global stocks will continue selling off. Go short the EM equity index and take profits on our open trades that have benefited from the global risk-on environment.
In the ongoing Middle East crisis, anti-fragile markets will remain relatively resilient while fragile markets will break. We describe how to draw the distinction. Plus, a new trade is a 50:50 combination of long USD/MXN and overweight Consumer Discretionary.
Avoid EM and DM risk assets. In the near term (one-to-three months), the odds favor US equity outperformance and a US dollar rebound. Nevertheless, the cyclical outlook (nine-to-12 months) warrants underweighting US equities and staying short the greenback.
Iran doesn’t need to sink a single US warship; it could inflict much more damage by sinking the US stock and bond markets by disrupting shipping, trade, and oil tankers with decentralised low-tech drone warfare. We discuss why it is not the direct pain of higher oil prices, but the knock-on repercussions for stock and bond markets that could inflict the greater damage. Plus, a new tactical trade is to underweight Materials.
The turmoil in private credit is a wild card, but our traditional suite of credit cycle indicators does not point to an imminent spread-widening episode. We reiterate our benchmark weightings on Treasuries, investment-grade and high-yield corporate bonds.
Tech has starkly underperformed other equity sectors and the tech-heavy US market has underperformed non-US markets, but global stocks are up and have comfortably outperformed bonds. This pattern of performances is likely to continue through the rest of 2026. Plus, two new tactical trades are: long coffee; and long ETH.
The annual benchmark payrolls revisions revealed that the labor market has been weaker for longer than initially reported. The probability that a crack in consumption is just around the corner is much reduced and we have therefore dialed back our recession expectations. Though our asset allocation recommendations remain neutral across the board, we are more optimistic than we were at the beginning of the year.
The Warsh Fed will run the US economy hot. This is bad for T-bonds and the dollar, but good for stocks. Plus, a new tactical trade is overweight Consumer Discretionary (RXI) versus Industrials (EXI).
The US and Japan are in the same predicament: save the bond market or save the stock market? How this predicament will be resolved is the biggest global macro call of 2026-27. Plus: a new tactical trade is to go short AUD/JPY.