The announced US-China deal has taken everyone – even us, the authors of the implicitly bullish Seven Steps of Maximum Pressure – by surprise. President Trump has signaled a pause in the fight against China. Yes, the situation can reverse, but when your Secretary Treasury says things like “neither s...
The easing bias remains, but not all central banks are equal. This Central Bank Monitor update reveals who is ready to cut more and who is still pretending not to....
OPEC+ recently announced another outsized oil production hike, tripling its planned June output increase to 411k b/d for the second consecutive month. Our take on why KSA is boosting crude output at a time of heightened downside demand risks is that it is pursuing an oil price war lite. President Tr...
Short-term pain from Trump-related concessions, fiscal tightening amid a US and Mexican slowdown, and rising labor slack will weigh further on Mexican assets. But long-run, policy direction will capitalize on the nearshoring trend and resume the trend of Mexican asset outperformance relative to othe...
This week, our three screeners cover: Identifying stocks with negative earnings leading into Q2; picking out losing stocks from a tariff-induced margin squeeze; and a tactical opportunity in high-scoring sentiment stocks....
Rate cuts, recession risks, and relative value. This report unpacks how the BoE, Riksbank, and Norges Bank are reacting to global trade turmoil and where the opportunities lie....
It may take several months for the tariff shock and policy uncertainty to filter through the real economy, but survey-based data are already sending a warning. Equities have priced in a lot of good news, and investors are too sanguine about the risk of a US recession....
Taiwan, Singapore, and Korea's currencies might appreciate versus the USD, driven by capital repatriation from domestic private investors away from the US. This thesis is less pertinent to India, Indonesia, and the Philippines because they have large net foreign portfolio liabilities. Malaysia and T...
Today, we are introducing an additional ‘high-frequency Joshi rule’ which is updated weekly. The Joshi rules tell us that a US recession is not imminent. Until the Joshi rules are triggered, overweight non-US government bonds, and especially UK gilts, versus US T-bonds. And shift cyclical asset allo...
