Essentials

Special Report

The yen carry trade will unwind this year. However, it will be triggered by a drop in “carry asset” prices and a spike in the JPY/USD, rather than by Japan’s improving interest rate differentials. Go long JPY against the USD.

Bank Credit Analyst

In Section II, Jonathan examines whether the AI “scaling laws” are likely to hold. They will over the near term, but cracks are already beginning to form in the narrative of ever-improving AI.

Special Report

After 250 years, the USA is still the biggest thing happening in the world. But it faces huge challenges in the coming decades from socioeconomic imbalances and strategic competition.

Bank Credit Analyst

In Section II, Jonathan updates the BCA Artificial Intelligence Productivity Checklist and concludes that the evidence of an AI-driven productivity boom is not convincing.

Special Report

In this report, we present an AI investment framework for long-term investors. We conclude that an “AI Winter” is likely to begin over the next one-to-three years. Investors should strategically favor value over growth stocks.

Bank Credit Analyst

Today, we are sending you the BCA annual outlook for 2026. The report is an edited transcript of our recent conversation with Mr. X and his daughter Ms. X, who are long-time BCA clients. Our discussion featured BCA’s economic and financial market outlook for the year ahead.

Bank Credit Analyst

In Section II, Doug and Global Investment Strategy’s Miroslav Aradski consider the implications of the AI investment boom.

Bank Credit Analyst

In Section II, Jonathan shows how valuation-adjusted fundamental momentum has been a successful tool for ranking global sectors.

Bank Credit Analyst

In Section II, Chester reviews the outlook for stablecoins, cryptocurrencies, and central bank digital currencies.

Bank Credit Analyst

In Section II, Jonathan reviews the US fiscal outlook in the wake of the passage of the OBBBA.