Latest from BCA Research
Our "miniature stagflation" episode is coming together on the back of the Iran shock, China slowdown, and American political division.
The global risk-off phase will persist. It is too early to buy local-currency bonds in Mainstream EM, but it is not too late to sell EM sovereign and corporate credit (USD bonds).
While the Middle East conflict’s inflationary impact is likely to persist, US recession risk is contained whereas non-US recession risk is more elevated. We discuss what this means for investment strategy. Plus, a new tactical trade is to underweight Utilities.
Over the past 48 hours, there has been a cacophony of statements back and forth between Tehran and Washington, DC, some suggesting that the probability of de-escalation is rising. At the same time, kinetic action has continued unabated. A Kuwaiti tanker was targeted by Iran off the coast of the UAE, followed by a Qatari tanker off Doha, and the US ramped up its attacks on Iranian industrial capacity. The world now awaits with great anticipation President Trump’s remarks to the nation on April 1.
We explore how markets reacted to different oil supply shocks in the past, how conditions differ today, and provide a playbook for investors to navigate the current crisis. Remain neutral between equities, bonds, and cash. Downgrade Tail Risk Strategies from Max Overweight to Overweight.
MacroQuant recommends a strong underweight position in equities, favors a below-benchmark duration stance in fixed-income portfolios, has become neutral-to-slightly positive on the US dollar, has downgraded gold to neutral and copper to a strong underweight, and is bullish on oil.
This screener report builds on the US Equity Strategy team's sector view published on 30 March 2026, where the team overweights Information Technology, Industrials, and Materials on a 3- to 12-month horizon. Here we utilize our screening tools to layer bottom-up stock selection onto their top-down sector views.
We are pleased to introduce our new Quarterly Investment Outlook, a joint publication bringing together the European Investment Strategy (EIS), Global Fixed Income Strategy (GFIS), and Foreign Exchange Strategy teams. The main takeaway of the current edition is that investors should not add risk. Markets are still focused on inflation, but the binding constraint is growth: if the energy shock persists into mid-April, a rapid shift toward recession pricing will follow.
Over the past month, oil market participants have scrambled to fill the gap in global oil supply caused by the Strait of Hormuz’s closure. While these efforts have been impressive, the scale of the disruption means they are ultimately insufficient. Upside pressures will continue to dominate energy prices until transit through the Strait of Hormuz is restored.