Latest from BCA Research
This week, our screeners explore opportunities in Canadian oil sands producers and global aluminum producers.
The AI trade has broadened beyond Public Markets, pulling Private Credit deeper into the ecosystem. Investors are right to understand their overlapping exposures between Public Equities, Venture Capital, Data Centers, and now Private Credit. However, risks from rising Venture Capital Debt and Asset-Based Lending are going unnoticed.
Japan's new government will continue, but politics and foreign policy have become more competitive.
Mortgage spread tightening has run its course. Any further drop in mortgage rates will necessitate lower Treasury yields.
Go long KRW versus USD. Within an EM equity portfolio, overweight Korean tech and stay neutral on Korean non-tech. However, we are not bullish on the Korean bourse's absolute performance.
Over the past few months, we have been deploying new market-timing tools aimed at improving the accuracy of our calls. Today’s report highlights our ultra high-frequency Daily Oscillators, which provide daily signals on the near-term direction of the S&P 500 and long-term Treasuries.
With the US unemployment rate and interest rate close to the ‘neutral’ u-star and r-star respectively, further Fed rate cuts risk pushing up inflation and long-term inflation expectations. This is bad for bonds but good for stocks. Plus, two new trades are: short TOPIX versus DAX; and short CAT versus SPX.
This morning’s CPI report signals that the worst of the tariff impact on inflation may already be in the rearview mirror.