Latest from BCA Research

Trump’s breaking point is encapsulated by the combined drawdown in stocks plus bonds reaching 12-15 percent. On this basis, we describe how to ‘trade Trump’. Plus, we highlight three positions that should do well independent of Trump’s actions, including a new trade.

The ceasefire announced on Tuesday may signal peak intensity in the Middle East crisis, but sustained energy price pressures will continue to challenge Chinese corporate profitability.

Special Report

We have received several questions from clients regarding practical issues surrounding strategic positions on gold. We find that gold is liquid and relatively inexpensive to trade while being a reliable diversifier that provides enough excess returns to account for loss in yield.

As we publish this regularly scheduled GeoMacro Alpha Report, President Trump is warning of civilization-ending strikes against Iran. A bluff? Stage Five on the Seven Steps of Maximum Pressure? A real threat to use weapons of mass destruction? The odds and pattern of Trump's behavior are skewed towards the former, but even small odds of the latter make trading the next 24 hours dangerous.

Domestic politics suggest that President Trump needs to retreat from the war in Iran, but strategic factors suggest not. Stay defensive for now.

Special Report

The Iran war provides a timely motivation for examining how the main financial asset classes and commodity sectors perform across different inflation regimes and during periods of elevated geopolitical risk.

US employment data show some tentative signs of job growth acceleration and stable utilization. We see breakeven monthly job growth as closer to +30k per month than zero.

The Turkish financial markets will struggle in the very near term, but beyond that, the cyclical disinflation process will resume. Fixed-income investors should put Turkish 2-year local currencybonds on a ‘buy’ watch list.

The US High Quality (USHQ) portfolio continues to outperform its benchmark through March, returning -2.49%, while its SPY benchmark returned -3.34%. On a trailing three-month basis, the USHQ portfolio’s performance was stronger than the benchmark as well, with USHQ outperforming by approx. 208bps.

We expect the S&P 500 to deliver $308 of EPS in 2026, with a year-end target of 7700. Revenue growth drives upside, with little margin or multiple expansion. With economic growth tilted toward investment, we are overweight Technology, Industrials, and Materials, market-weight Financials, Energy, Health Care, Communication Services, and Real Estate, and underweight Consumer Staples, Consumer Discretionary, and Utilities.